Snowie4 Professional Edition Version 4.1 HTML Export

Ilia Guzei vs Bob Glass.
Michigan Summer Championships
Jule 6, 2003.
Kindly recorded by Chuck Bower.

Ilia Guzei (Green) vs. Bob Glass (White)

11 point Match

Match introduction

I analyzed the match with Snowie 4 at 3-ply level running some quick and dirty rollouts of the errors and blunders.

Bob's and my error rates improved going from the 2-ply to 3-ply level evaluation analyses, which means we play closer to Snowie's 3-ply level than to its 2-ply level.

	Game 01
	Match to 11. Score Green-White: 0-0

Move 1 White
		Pip: 167
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 167

Move 2 White
		Pip: 167
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 167

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	24/23 13/8	0.013
			0.6% 13.8% 50.1% 49.9% 13.4% 0.6%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	13/8 6/5	-0.003 (-0.017)
			0.7% 14.0% 49.8% 50.2% 14.1% 0.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	24/18	-0.033 (-0.046)
			0.6% 12.3% 49.5% 50.5% 14.3% 0.6%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	13/7	-0.066 (-0.079)
			0.7% 13.8% 48.0% 52.0% 14.9% 0.8%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	2	24/23 8/3	-0.149 (-0.162)
			0.6% 12.3% 46.1% 53.9% 16.0% 0.7%

Move 3 Green
		Pip: 161
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 167

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	8/3 6/3	-0.037
			0.6% 13.8% 48.8% 51.2% 14.3% 0.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	24/21 13/8	-0.065 (-0.029)
			0.6% 12.3% 48.4% 51.6% 14.3% 0.6%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	24/16	-0.095 (-0.058)
			0.5% 11.3% 48.2% 51.8% 15.2% 0.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	13/8 13/10	-0.117 (-0.081)
			0.6% 12.6% 46.7% 53.3% 15.0% 0.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	3	13/10 6/1*	-0.122 (-0.086)
			0.6% 13.4% 46.5% 53.5% 15.6% 0.8%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.

Move 3 White
		Pip: 161
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 159

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	8/5(2) 6/3(2)	0.425
			1.3% 21.3% 60.0% 40.0% 11.1% 0.6%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	13/10(2) 8/5(2)	0.290 (-0.135)
			1.0% 18.9% 57.3% 42.7% 12.7% 0.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	2	24/21 23/20 8/5(2)	0.202 (-0.223)
			1.0% 17.3% 55.2% 44.8% 13.5% 0.7%
	4	2	24/21 13/10 8/5(2)	0.193 (-0.232)
			1.1% 18.1% 54.9% 45.1% 14.3% 0.7%
	5	2	23/20 13/10 8/5(2)	0.188 (-0.237)
			1.1% 18.5% 54.5% 45.5% 14.3% 0.8%

Move 4 Green
		Pip: 149
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 159

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/21 13/9	-0.576
			0.6% 10.6% 37.5% 62.5% 25.4% 1.5%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
*	2	3	24/21 6/2*	-0.579 (-0.003)
			0.5% 9.7% 37.1% 62.9% 23.6% 1.5%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	13/6	-0.614 (-0.038)
			0.5% 9.9% 35.6% 64.4% 21.4% 1.3%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	13/9 13/10	-0.634 (-0.058)
			0.6% 10.2% 35.6% 64.4% 22.5% 1.8%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	3	13/10 6/2*	-0.724 (-0.147)
			0.6% 9.7% 34.7% 65.3% 24.6% 2.1%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.

Checker play

Naturally, I split. It's often correct to unstack the heaviest point and I did consider 13/9, but being vulnerable on both sides of the board and giving Bob freedom to choose what to do did not seem like a good combination. The deuce point is not a point I want to make now but it's a tempo hit.

Move 4 White
		Pip: 151
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 152

Cube action equity		Alert: Correct decision not to double
3-Ply	Money equity:	0.404
	1.6% 23.5% 62.8% 37.2% 9.7% 0.5%
1.	Double, take	0.572
2.	No double	0.554	(-0.018)
3.	Double, pass	1.000	(+0.428)
Proper cube action: Double, take

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	R	bar/23*/20	0.726
			1.7% 25.7% 65.6% 34.4% 7.7% 0.4%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.506 �0.008. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 5, 108 games (equiv. 65784 games), played 2-ply (standard), seed 4, with race database.
	2	R	bar/23* 24/21	0.699 (-0.027)
			1.7% 25.4% 65.0% 35.0% 7.9% 0.4%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.488 �0.008. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 5, 108 games (equiv. 91767 games), played 2-ply (standard), seed 4, with race database.
	3	R	bar/23* 13/10	0.664 (-0.062)
			1.9% 27.6% 64.7% 35.3% 8.8% 0.5%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.496 �0.008. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 5, 108 games (equiv. 102879 games), played 2-ply (standard), seed 4, with race database.
	4	3	bar/23* 8/5	0.596 (-0.130)
			1.9% 27.6% 62.2% 37.8% 9.4% 0.6%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	2	bar/23* 6/3	0.526 (-0.200)
			1.4% 22.3% 60.9% 39.1% 9.7% 0.5%

Checker play

Note how unstacking the midpoint with 13/10 to bring one checker to bear on the 4 point is inferior to going after the advanced anchor. I am surprised. The short rollout confirmed the evaluation. 13/10 does win more gammons, however.

Move 5 Green
		Pip: 146
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 175

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	1	Can't move	-1.000
			0.4% 6.1% 28.8% 71.2% 37.1% 2.9%


		Pip: 146
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 175

	White	Double

6.	Green	Take

Cube action equity		Alert: Wrong take
Rollout	Money equity:	0.743
	2.4% 36.5% 70.9% 29.1% 6.2% 0.2%
	95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.743 �0.020. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 500 games (equiv. 12978 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 57, with race database.
1.	Double, pass	1.000
2.	No double	0.923	(-0.077)
3.	Double, take	1.328	(+0.328)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Cube action

Did I mention I am moving to Middle East to play the cubeless variation of backgammon?
If someone else was commenting he would say "perhaps Ilia had not settled into the match" or some similar bs. I was thinking - I have all my checkers in play, I have a 2 point board and how much worse is this as compared to a position when White has his ace point made instead of his 5 point (mentally moving my blot from the 24 to the 23 point)? I failed to see that Bob is not commited to a blitz. His position is very flexible and powerful. All his game plans are open and he will also be able to make switching plays if necessary to enhance his blitzing strategy.
BTW, had Bob had his ace point made rather than the 5 point it would have been a take.

Move 6 White
		Pip: 146
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 175

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	8/4*	0.591
			3.0% 36.0% 68.8% 31.2% 7.2% 0.5%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	24/20	0.470 (-0.121)
			1.4% 26.3% 68.0% 32.0% 6.4% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	13/9	0.448 (-0.143)
			2.1% 29.7% 66.1% 33.9% 7.8% 0.5%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	2	24/23 13/10	0.415 (-0.176)
			1.9% 26.8% 66.0% 34.0% 7.8% 0.5%
	5	2	13/10 6/5	0.394 (-0.197)
			1.8% 26.8% 65.3% 34.7% 8.2% 0.5%

Move 7 Green
		Pip: 142
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 179

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	1	bar/24	-0.696
			0.4% 6.1% 26.9% 73.1% 35.4% 2.8%

Move 7 White
		Pip: 142
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 178

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	8/7 6/4	0.772
			3.4% 35.5% 75.3% 24.7% 4.8% 0.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	24/23 6/4	0.762 (-0.011)
			3.2% 34.8% 75.2% 24.8% 4.6% 0.3%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	1	13/11 4/3	0.374 (-0.399)
			2.4% 29.4% 63.6% 36.4% 9.0% 0.5%
	4	1	13/10	0.361 (-0.412)
			2.6% 28.8% 64.0% 36.0% 10.8% 0.8%
	5	1	24/23 13/11	0.357 (-0.415)
			2.4% 28.1% 64.0% 36.0% 10.3% 0.6%

Move 8 Green
		Pip: 139
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 178

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	bar/23 24/23	-0.617
			0.3% 5.7% 27.6% 72.4% 29.7% 1.8%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	bar/23 6/5*	-0.724 (-0.108)
			0.4% 5.9% 27.5% 72.5% 37.5% 4.5%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	2	bar/24 13/11	-0.825 (-0.208)
			0.4% 4.6% 22.6% 77.4% 35.2% 3.7%
	4	2	bar/24 6/4	-0.946 (-0.329)
			0.5% 3.8% 21.1% 78.9% 41.5% 5.1%
	5	1	bar/23 3/2	-0.942 (-0.325)
			0.3% 3.7% 22.7% 77.3% 44.1% 5.5%

Move 8 White
		Pip: 139
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 175

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/21 7/5	0.496
			1.6% 27.8% 68.7% 31.3% 6.9% 0.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
*	2	3	13/10 7/5	0.494 (-0.002)
			1.8% 29.2% 68.0% 32.0% 7.0% 0.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	20/18 7/4	0.474 (-0.022)
			1.8% 28.1% 67.7% 32.3% 7.2% 0.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	13/11 7/4	0.469 (-0.027)
			1.9% 29.6% 67.1% 32.9% 7.7% 0.5%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	3	20/18 13/10	0.378 (-0.118)
			2.1% 27.8% 65.0% 35.0% 9.9% 0.9%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.

Move 9 Green
		Pip: 134
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 175

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	24/18 23/18	-0.446
			0.4% 7.6% 34.8% 65.2% 32.4% 1.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
*	2	3	24/13	-0.470 (-0.023)
			0.3% 5.5% 30.6% 69.4% 22.8% 1.0%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	24/18 13/8	-0.607 (-0.161)
			0.3% 5.3% 28.2% 71.8% 29.9% 1.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	2	13/7 13/8	-0.700 (-0.254)
			0.4% 5.2% 27.3% 72.7% 35.7% 2.7%
	5	2	13/2	-0.730 (-0.284)
			0.3% 5.2% 25.9% 74.1% 35.5% 2.7%

Checker play

I did consider making his bar but did not want to have a blot in his board while being very inflexible. I am also surprised how much worse 24/18, 13/8 is, as I thought it was not a bad unstacking play. My play is just the opposite - I am putting a 6th checker on the midpoint! My decision was to wait for good things to happen.

Move 9 White
		Pip: 134
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 164

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	24/20 13/11	0.538
			1.0% 24.0% 71.3% 28.7% 4.6% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	24/20 10/8	0.496 (-0.042)
			0.9% 24.9% 69.5% 30.5% 5.3% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	24/20 5/3	0.481 (-0.057)
			0.8% 23.3% 69.5% 30.5% 5.1% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	13/11 10/6	0.406 (-0.132)
			1.2% 24.9% 66.3% 33.7% 6.9% 0.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	2	20/14	0.370 (-0.168)
			1.2% 22.2% 66.2% 33.8% 7.3% 0.4%

Move 10 Green
		Pip: 128
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 164

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	13/7	-0.549
			0.2% 4.4% 28.3% 71.7% 24.0% 1.1%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	13/9 6/4	-0.562 (-0.013)
			0.2% 4.5% 28.7% 71.3% 26.1% 1.3%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	8/4 6/4	-0.603 (-0.055)
			0.2% 4.6% 28.1% 71.9% 28.5% 1.4%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	8/4 8/6	-0.606 (-0.058)
			0.1% 4.1% 26.0% 74.0% 23.9% 1.0%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	3	13/9 13/11	-0.680 (-0.131)
			0.2% 4.1% 26.4% 73.6% 31.2% 1.8%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.

Checker play

I'd rather play with one blot than two and the blot on the bar does not get hit as often.

Move 10 White
		Pip: 128
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 158

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	3	11/7	0.476
			1.0% 21.8% 69.8% 30.2% 5.1% 0.3%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
*	2	3	10/6	0.453 (-0.023)
			0.8% 20.2% 69.6% 30.4% 5.0% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	10/7 5/4	0.445 (-0.031)
			0.9% 21.0% 69.1% 30.9% 5.4% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	11/8 10/9	0.436 (-0.039)
			0.8% 19.9% 69.1% 30.9% 5.2% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	3	11/8 5/4	0.426 (-0.050)
			0.8% 20.4% 68.6% 31.4% 5.5% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.

Checker play

11/7 is the clever play trying to lure me off the anchor when White has the best 4 point board. I would have made Bob's play.

Move 11 Green
		Pip: 124
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 158

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	M	13/8 6/4	-0.470
			0.2% 4.9% 30.2% 69.8% 21.0% 1.1%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.567 �0.012. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 5, 108 games (equiv. 25070 games), played 2-ply (fast), seed 1, with race database.
*	2	M	13/6	-0.489 (-0.019)
			0.2% 4.7% 28.9% 71.1% 19.9% 0.9%
			95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.581 �0.011. Rollout settings: Truncated rollout, depth 5, 108 games (equiv. 27627 games), played 2-ply (fast), seed 1, with race database.
	3	3	7/2 6/4	-0.524 (-0.054)
			0.1% 4.4% 27.3% 72.7% 19.5% 0.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	4	3	13/11 7/2	-0.622 (-0.152)
			0.2% 4.2% 26.1% 73.9% 25.6% 1.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	5	3	13/8 13/11	-0.629 (-0.159)
			0.2% 4.2% 27.8% 72.2% 29.8% 1.7%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.

Move 11 White
		Pip: 124
		Game 1 11 point match Green-White: Score 0-0
		Pip: 151

#		Ply	Move	Equity
*	1	3	13/8 11/8	0.442
			0.6% 17.5% 70.3% 29.7% 5.1% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	2	3	13/8 13/10	0.393 (-0.049)
			0.7% 18.8% 67.9% 32.1% 5.5% 0.2%
			Speed Parameter: Precise.
	3	3	11/3	0.378 (-0.064)
			0.7% 19.1% 67.3% 32.7% 6.0% 0.2%